Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Documentation

Trend and Forecast Chart

Displays several historical time series plots related to CPU allocation and usage for the selected database or group, as well as linear regression, seasonality aware and AutoML forecasting (machine learning) trends and forecasts over these data. Trends are computed over the time period selected in the global context area.

The chart facilitates numerous tasks in support of Capacity Planning use cases:

  • Forecast future maximum and average demand for CPU resources
  • Compare current usage to allocation to detect over-provisioning
  • Compare maximum to average usage and trends to assess demand volatility
  • Forecast difference between maximum and average daily CPU usage to estimate potential savings from workload smoothing
  • Detect and forecast daily or weekly seasonality in CPU demand
  • See confidence channels around forecasts to contextualize variability
The following models can be selected for display on the upper right of the Trend and Forecast chart:
  • Linear Regression: The linear regression model assumes a linear relationship across variables to predict the future resource usage.
  • Seasonality Aware: The seasonal option combines a simple model that detects basic seasonality with dynamic, user-selectable data.
  • Forecast Backtesting: Allows you to compare historical forecasts for time periods over which actual data is collected and quantify the deviation between historical and forecast trends.
  • AutoML Forecasting: The AutoML forecasting option selects the best fin from multiple machine learning models trained on fixed data window.
  • Show Cost: Allows you to visualize single metric based dollar value within Ops Insights Capacity Planning Databases.

The following CPU data series can be selected or deselected for display from the legend at right end of the chart:

  • Capacity: Maximum number of CPUs (cores x threads/core) available on the underlying infrastructure. This is only shown when looking at a single non-autonomous database, or when grouping by Host or CDB
  • Allocation: Total number of CPUs allocated to the current database or databases
  • Max Allocation: Maximum number of CPUs allocated to the current database or databases. This is relevant when an autonomous database has auto-scaling enabled
  • Max Usage: Maximum value of daily (hourly) CPU usage data for database (or group)
  • Max Usage Forecast: Forecast of Max Usage data using selected forecast model
  • Avg Usage: Average value of daily (hourly) CPU usage data
  • Avg Usage Forecast: Forecast of Avg Usage data using selected forecast model
  • Max Confidence Channel: Confidence channel for Max Usage Forecast
  • Avg Confidence Channel: Confidence channel for Avg Usage Forecast
  • Over-Allocation Range: Over-Allocation Range appears (shaded region) when the total number of allocated CPUs across the databases is greater than the CPUs of the underlying infrastructure (host).